11.16am
Expectation that R44 completion @ 6170 playing out....
Hopefully the trend will continue down towards the R87 lows 6144 and Weekly lows @ 6129..
Re-entry 6191 partial exit 6183... (stops moved to breakeven from entry 6191)
Next Exit 6174
Holding 1 lot (6207) into R87 lows with stops above the Trailing R11 trio.....
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11:25
R44 completion and price moves into the 5-day range:- around 6170 is an each way bet for the rest of the trading day:- up and rotation back into the highs....
Down and R87 completion @ 6144 and maybe more....
SPI Trading 8th January part 4
FOREX GBP/USD & EUR/USD 8th Jan 08
GBP:- Overall Trend heading down....Weekly trend defined by the 5-day 50% level
Daily support as shown above....
If trading partial exits around 43 pips and 90 pips from swing points and hold last on Daily trends either way... (same applies on 'shorting')
Because I'm based in Sydney I try and get set only in our day session, I don't do US hours that often, but the levels are there for everyone, as described in the number of different ways trader's trade.
EUR:- Expectation 2-day stall in an UP trending market.
Trading above all higher timeframe 50% level, except the 5-day. And now a close below the 3-day lows...
Daily drops in the forward timeframe favouring another daily 'push down' stalling day.
A 2nd day 'stall' and push down into 'Support'. (risk the 5-day 50% level)
No high probability trades on Tuesday.
Note:- 5-day 50% level must be used as Risk, because a close below the 3-day lows can often swing the market upwards towards the 3-day highs....
Downwards would be the Tuesday lows and Weekly 50% level.....
SPI Trading 8th January part 3
10:09re-entry @ 6199 exit 6192
holding from 6207
moved stops to trailing @ 6204
looking for R44 completion @ 6170 and take day off...
SPI Trading 8th January part 2
10:00Push upwards in 6210 and risk level around yesterday's spiral top..
entry 6207 partial Exit 6192
Stops now 6211
Expectation that price is moving down into 6170, and not upwards (hopefully)
SPI Trading 8th January 2008
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Trend down and bearish:- below all higher timeframe 50% levels, and the important Yearly Balance point. Expectation that 'Price-over-Time' will move towards the January lows.
Yesterday was defined by the 5-day lows @ 6231, along with using intra-day ATR ranges of 22 & 44 points to trade.(outside the 5-day range)
Today price will be back inside the 5-day range once again.....
8:30am
Risk levels are the R44 spiral top from yesterday @ 6210 and 6170:- the R44 spiral low.
Above 6210 and I favour the R87 completion from yesterday's low:- swing back into the 5-day 50% level @ 6247 (Gap closure @ 6259 resistance)
A higher spiral point from yesterday often favours a down move and 44 point completion @ 6170, which will then confirm price is back inside the 5-day range. (yesterday's 44 point range has to complete before price is inside the 5-day range on Tuesday)
A move down into 6170 will then have a random outcome, price can either follow a rotation upwards completing the 'gap-closure' (rising upwards from Spiral low), or it's going to move down into 6144 and the R87 low, and or continue down following the Weekly trend.
I don't have a high probable direction for the market today, other than using Risk levels, and understanding that the market is going to be trying to do one of those two things.
Trend down and bearish:- below all higher timeframe 50% levels, and the important Yearly Balance point. Expectation that 'Price-over-Time' will move towards the January lows.
Yesterday was defined by the 5-day lows @ 6231, along with using intra-day ATR ranges of 22 & 44 points to trade.(outside the 5-day range)
Today price will be back inside the 5-day range once again.....
8:30am
Risk levels are the R44 spiral top from yesterday @ 6210 and 6170:- the R44 spiral low.
Above 6210 and I favour the R87 completion from yesterday's low:- swing back into the 5-day 50% level @ 6247 (Gap closure @ 6259 resistance)
A higher spiral point from yesterday often favours a down move and 44 point completion @ 6170, which will then confirm price is back inside the 5-day range. (yesterday's 44 point range has to complete before price is inside the 5-day range on Tuesday)
A move down into 6170 will then have a random outcome, price can either follow a rotation upwards completing the 'gap-closure' (rising upwards from Spiral low), or it's going to move down into 6144 and the R87 low, and or continue down following the Weekly trend.
I don't have a high probable direction for the market today, other than using Risk levels, and understanding that the market is going to be trying to do one of those two things.
FOREX GBP/USD 7th January part 3
Partial Exit 1.9726:- moving stops to trailing stops @ 1.9675
Rotation back into the 5-day 50% level (next partial exit around 90 pip highs.)
Above 5-day 50% level and expectation price is heading back towards 3-day highs and exit to be neutral.
FOREX GBP/USD & EUR/USD 7th Jan part 2
GBP has moved down into support:- don't trade longs below 1.9658
EUR/USD continuing down, as part of the 2-day rotation, with rotaton target back into the Weekly 50% level.Whilst price is below the breakout don't favour any longs....
DOW E-mini 7th January 2008
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Please read the US market Weekly Reports before proceeding..
Lower Weekly close and expectation is that price will swing upwards back towards the Weekly 50% levels.
However, the best support levels will be around the higher timeframe support zones in both markets, as described in the Weekly report.
Risk levels on Monday in both markets will be the 5-day 50%, trade either way:- resistance and expectation a push down into the higher timeframe support zones.
Above and expectation that it is part of the 2-day rotation back towards the Weekly 50% levels
Please read the US market Weekly Reports before proceeding..
Lower Weekly close and expectation is that price will swing upwards back towards the Weekly 50% levels.
However, the best support levels will be around the higher timeframe support zones in both markets, as described in the Weekly report.
Risk levels on Monday in both markets will be the 5-day 50%, trade either way:- resistance and expectation a push down into the higher timeframe support zones.
Above and expectation that it is part of the 2-day rotation back towards the Weekly 50% levels
SPI Trading 7th January 2008 part 6
15:38Exitted last contract @ 6171 R44 lows ...
I have the SPI Weekly chart above:- it is the first time since MAY 2003 that price has been trading below the Yearly BP.
With the Monthly lows in January pointing to lower prices and support, it will depend on how US markets react early this week.
Whilst price is below 6246, then expectation market is moving down, and following the monthly dynamics lower. Above it and price is rotating back towards January 50% levels. (Weekly Report)
However there are the R87 'gaps' still to be filled on the UPside, and this might have something to do with US markets rotating upwards overnight.
Again the major trends will simply be defined by the Yearly balance points in all markets.....
SPI Trading 7th January 2008 part 5
12:45SPI pushing lower below the 5-day break. There was an upswing of 44 points from the lows, forming a Spiral top in a bearish pattern...
Entry 6198 (r11 Reversal) partial exit 6193 (R22 completion)
holding 1 lot into Daily lows looking for R87 completion @ 6144
Stops breakeven from entry....
Expectation that price will follow through on the downside:- if stopped out I won't trade again today...
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