SPI Trading 29th January 2008 part 2

10:05

Expectation SPI is moving back down into 5771 and the 3-day breakout...

SPI opened above 5845 (Risk) but the expectation was that the R44 bar had to come down into 5845 to complete the Range from Friday, and also being pushed down from the 5-day highs (resistance 5875)...

Trade the break of the R11 trio @ 5854 and exit all @ 5810....

Even though 5808 is a spiral bottom and can find some buyers, I personally not looking for any buying support because of the expectation of a continued down move into 5771

SPI Trading 29th January 2008

SPI will be opening above the 3-day high (BUY cycle) and the Weekly 50% level @ 5766, this normally is the first sign that a bottom is in place.

In a Yearly Bull trend we would normally look for the market to move back above the Monthly 50% levels and then head back towards the 3-month highs. However in 2008 it's different and the only expectation at this stage is a rotation back towards the February 50% level...

Today:- expectation that price is heading back into the break of the 5766-71, before any UP move continues into February 50% level.

Risk is Gap :- 5845

Normally I would look at the gap as resistance and trade down towards the 3-day high break @ 5771

Above 5845 and expectation is that price will be moving into an R44 spiral top, and back towards the 5-day highs @ 5875....

Note:- The Market is trying to move UP towards the January lows @ 6007, and towards the 50% level of February. Ideally I would like to see a down move before it head upwards, than a market that continues higher this week without re-testing the Weekly 50% level. ...

DOW E-mini 28th January 2008 part 2

US markets bounced off the 5-day 50% levels and 3-day lows, and currently moving into a 'HOOK' day, as it closes above the Weekly 50% level......

Full report later.....

DOW E-mini Report 28th January 2008

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Please Read US weekly report before proceeding....

US markets come down into the 5-day 50% levels and 3-day lows......

Risk levels:-

DOW 12116
E-mini 1315

Trading longs below these levels (breakout) are open to Risk, as prices are being pushed down from the Weekly 50% level...(Weekly Report)

FOREX GBP/USD 28th January 2008

GBP:- upwards from January lows and moving towards February 50% level...

Breakout of the 3-day cycle and a higher Weekly open:- 'model of expectation' price will move back down into the Weekly 50% level before heading higher in the latter part of the week....

Monday's trading is going to be defined by the breakout of the Sunday range, with expectation that any rotation down will be towards the 5-day 50% level....

Shorting above Monday's high is open to Risk (1.9907)

In conclusion:- GBP moving back towards the February 50% level, however the pattern that I would like to see would be a rotation back down for the first 2-days, finding support around the Weekly 50% level, and then trading upwards towards the Weekly highs 1.9928- 1.9988 in the 2nd half of the week, and then continuing higher into February 50% level the following week.

Weekly Index Reports for Global Markets (January 26th 2008)

Please click Weekly reports to the right....


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DOW E-mini 25th January 2008 part 2

US markets are moving into the 2nd day of the stall and pushing back down towards the middle of the Weekly range...

Expectation that whilst price is trading below January lows, Markets will be hitting resistance levels and consolidating until the end of the trading month...

Full Weekly Report later...

DOW E-mini 25th January 2008

DOW:-

US Markets are trading around their highs but still under important levels on Friday…

There is still a large gap towards the 3-day lows, and there is still an expectation that Friday and easily have a down day…because of the change of the 3-day cycle.

I classify yesterday as a ‘stalling’ with most of the of the day spending below the Resistance zone of 12401 before a late move upwards towards the Daily highs…

If the markets are going to continue higher on Friday, they will need to break the channels highs:- That won’t occur until the break out of 12578… expectation that the DOW will move towards January 50% level and as high @ 12812…

Any reversal down would be towards the 5-day 50% level…(resistance 12401)

E-minis

Exact same expectation:- price is trading around the 3-day cycle highs 1360 (resistance)

Any rotation down would be towards the 5-day 50% level…

Breakout above 1377 and expectation price is moving toward 1397+

Whenever the channels come together there is a higher probability of a breakout, but it needs to be verified first by price trading outside the channel….

Full Weekly report tomorrow:-

If the market moves down into a ‘blow-off’ bottom in this quarter then I expect a massive counter-trend move upwards back towards the 3-month highs before the next major sell-off down in the 3rd Quarter.......... (US Weekly report 19th January)

SPI Trading 25th January 2008 part 4

14:28

Covered last @ 5740

Analysis:- Failure at the 3-day highs after such a big move, price can continue lower into the close.

Two possibilites coming into the last 100 mins of trading :- A swing upwards from an R44 low (2.50pm) and heads upwards closing above the 3-day highs. (expectation of a down move next week after change of cycle)

Or it can move down into the close back towards 5715, and even close the gap @ 5580 either late or overnight if US markets move down...

Blow-off top @ 5771

I'll let the market play out this afternoon, but whatever it does it won't surpise me either way....

SPI Trading 25th January 2008 part 3

13.40

SPI has moved into a blow off top @ 5771…..

Expectation that there would be some resistance around these highs based on the 3-day cycle….

A bullish market will continue higher into the close, closing above 5771.. that might come from an R44 reversal (Spiral bottom) which we haven’t had one today or there might not be any R44 reversal today…

This upper level is also a Sellers zone, so it won’t surprise me either to see selling into the close…


Entry 5771 (R11 Reversal) Partial exit 5754….

Looking for an R44 downmove and exit for the day...

Any up swing and the R11 Trio is resistance @ 5774 (don't short trade above this level in the 2nd half of the day.... (higher close)