SPI Trading 12th February part 3

10:17

Weekly 50% level and R87 spiral top, pushing the market down.....

I had two set-ups today....

Short the Weekly 50% level @ 5993 and trade down into an R44 low to close the Gap, and then trade longs from the gap closure, and hold into close...

Entry longs 5552 (Stopped 5547)

Because there was no Buying support around 5550, then I don't have a view for the rest of the day....

I'm going to sit out the rest of today and protect profits from this morning.

But the over all Trend remains bearish...... high risk trading longs below 5550

SPI Trading 12th February 2008 part 2

10:02

SPI sold down from the Weekly 50% level @ 5993 and into 'gap' closure.....

It didn't reach an R44 low, but if the market is going to move higher then price will begin to settle above this level and then move back above the R87 high @ 5579.....

I was on the phone and missed 'shorting' the top today (lost track of time) and had to 'short' @ 5580 Exit 5562 (Neutral) +18 :(...not happy)

Levels of interest today are:-

5550 (R44 lows)
5579 (r87 Top)
5593 (Weekly 50%)

Note: Failure of the Weekly 50% level and coming down from an R87 top is a bearish pattern....Don't trade longs below 5550 today

SPI Trading 12th February 2008

SPI supported around Quarterly lows, and still remains in the 3-day BUY cycle.

Lower Weekly open and there still the view that price can close higher this week,
This will be confirmed once price is trading above the Weekly 50% level @ 5593, and then the 5-day 50%.

Today's open and price has completed a 'hook' on the R87 range, this often can signal that a short-term low in the Weekly timeframe has been found, and a rotation back upwards towards the 5-day 50% level is about to take place...

My High probablity pattern this week was the same price action as in the US on Monday, rising upwards from the Weekly 50% level....

" If it moves down on Monday below, then it's back to short-term 'RISK' trading, using timeframe levels and Spiral points.... Weekly Report"

We moved down on Monday, therefore Tuesday is about 'Risk' trading, because there isn't a high probability pattern.....

Tuesday:-

A higher open will have higher spiral points, therefore it's hard to go long on open.

A 'gap' closure of 5551 and rising upwards from this level or an R44 spiral low, would be something that I'd look for today, but it's going to be hard if there aren't any timeframe levels to use as Support.

My view today is short-term 'scalping' ATR ranges...

Note: If there is going to be a rotation down into a lower R44 spiral point - (5551) .... then my level of interest (resistance) is going to be the Weekly 50% level @ 5593

After today's trading the 5-day ranges are going to start to come together, and it will give a much clearer view on the market tomorrow......

DOW E-mini Trading 11th Feb part 2

US markets moving upwards from the Weekly 50% level and heading back towards the 3-day highs...

These 3-day highs on Tuesday are going to be critical on the direction for the rest of the Week...

Full Report later....

FOREX GBP/USD 11th Feb 2008 part 2

GBP pushed down from my last post and has moved into the Thurday's breakout @ 1.9530 (Expected Resistance), which also matches a 120 pip spiral high.

The only conclusion is that price is moving back down towards Monday's lows......

Risk Shorting above 5-day 50%

Expectation that price rejection from these levels is 90-120 pips down....

Partial exit 43 pips down from highs and run tight stops above 1.9530

DOW E-mini Trading 11th Feb 2008

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Please Read the Weekly Reports before continuing

DOW:-

Down Trend confirmed by the higher timeframe 50% levels, along with a 3-day Sell cycle.

Opening at the Weekly 50% level, and this should clearly give traders an idea about trend direction for Monday...

Two Patterns this Week:- Continued down move into Weekly .618 lows, and the ideal reversal swing will be confirmed by a 'HOOK' back inside the Weekly 50% level.

Or an UP move on Monday and the 5-day 50% level along with the 3-day high, could set-up further weakness on Tuesday and the rest of the Week.

E-mini

The further weakness is because of the 3-day 'Sell' Cycle, and a very similar pattern that occured in GBP/USD last Week:- UP move on Monday from the Weekly 50% level, and then failure and rejection on Tuesday continuing down on Wednesday into the Weekly .618 level.

Monday's Risk is Sunday's lows, along with the Weekly 50% levels.

SPI Trading 11th Feb 08 part 6 (RECAP# 2)

SPI Recap # 2: 13:08

SPI following the overall trend down into the 3-day lows, and any extended push down this week and 5362 is the next lower target (.618 Weekly)

As I've explained before.......the Market path of Price moves from one level into the next, but it's the 'spiral point' that helps minimise Risk.

http://thetradertrading.blogspot.com/2008/02/spi-trading-7th-february-recap.html

The above link describes certain levels and probability within each day, and how on occasions the market provides certain patterns that help increase the potential within Daily and Weekly Trends.

This week is different compared to the early price action last Week, because of the lack of rotation within the daily timeframe. (above link)

Last Friday's expectation was that price was coming back down into 5585, after the failure of the Weekly 50% level.

However the high probability pattern to re-enter the trade was an R44 high, which didn't happen. Because an R44 high is always to closet to your 'stop-loss', which minimises Risk and increases the potential of reward.

And the same applies today:- the Expectation of price coming down into the 3-day lows after the failure of the Weekly 50% level @ 5593 was 'mapped' out, however the price action within the day didn't provide the opportunity to re-enter 'shorts' after the initial exit. What I needed was another R44 spiral top to minimise Risk.

Last Week there was much more rotation going on, and today it didn't provide the opportunity to get back into the trend.

Next trade tomorrow...

FOREX GBP/USD 11th February 2008

GBP:- Expectation that price is following the overall trend down towards the Weekly lows @ 1.9296...

Friday's report was about price moving back up into Thursday's breakout (5-day 50% level), before continuing down lower.

Friday moved up 120 pips, and now Monday is tradng below the 120 pip spiral top....

Ideally the best trade would be to using Thursday's breakout as a resistance zone, because it's closets to the 'stop-loss' point, if looking to trade down...

However, Monday is trading below the 120 spiral top, therefore a 43 pip up move today @ 1.9490 reversal back under Sunday's lows, and expectation price is heading down.....

Sunday's lows @ 1.9452 (risk support)

SPI Trading 11th Feb 08 part 5 (RECAP)

SPI Recap……..11:05

SPI Rallied 44 points, reversed and is now following the overall Market trend down towards the 3-day lows....

Once price moved back under the Weekly 50% level, price was trading below all higher timeframe 50% levels and continues with the trend down...



Today my set-up was about trading longs on open and with the expectation that price would move upwards into the 5-day 50% level.

I also acknowledged that the higher timeframe 50% levels are the driving force of the trend, and any failure of 5593-6, the market path is to head down towards the 3-day lows.

However the latter wasn’t my high probability pattern.


I entered longs, and using past price patterns, any continued rally upwards price would move up 87 points, with a 2nd high probability pattern on Longs on a R22 reversal….

SPI completed the R44 top, but reversed down back under Support:- 5593-6 (stopped out)

As happens on many occasions, the Resistance or Support will be confirmed with a spiral point, and often this occurs with 22 point ranges and rejection…

If there is a 22 point reversal and rejection under Support, well what’s the next trade if it’s following the higher timeframe Trend???….Either stay out or switch to shorts...

Exit @ 5556….

A down move will probably follow 87 points down from today’s highs...5543

Below:- 5593 and Weekly 50% level and price is moving down into the 3-day lows..

SPI Trading 11th February 2008 part 4

10:45

SPI moved up 22 points into the 5593-6 (expected Resistance), and now consolidating...

A failure at the Weekly 50% level and R22 reversals, and expectation that an R44 completion @ 5555 should play out....

Covered earlier long at 5583 and then moved into shorts, and adding on the r22 Reversal @ 5585....

Stops @ 5590....

Today is very choppy, if stopped out I won't trade again today, until in the afternoon, or I might just take the day off....

Looking for an R22 down move @ 5567, and then the R44 completion to take the day off