DOW 25th February 2008 part 2



DOW following the bias of moving towards March 50% level.

Today was choppy with the 3-day highs forming early resistance and then a late push UP towards the Weekly .618 range and stalling with 1 hour to go before close...

This price action will probably continue into the end of the Week.....

Full report later:- Note US reports are posted just after midnight US NYC....

DOW E-mini 25th February 2008

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Please read the US Index Weekly report.....


US markets trading above the Weekly 50% levels and moving into the 3-day highs, the same price action that occured in the Australian Market today, with the expectation that market is rotating UP towards the March 50% levels...

Thursday's highs are the resistance levels:- above the 3-day highs bullish...

Support is shown above......

No high probability trade on Monday:- below support and expectation price will consolidate with a push back down to. 12310 DOW E-mini 1344

SPI Trading 25th February 2008 part 4

SPI 14:50

SPI has moved back down into the 5-day 50% levels for Monday and have found support, with 14:36 buying coming into the market.

5580-88 is still seen as resistance, if it can get above that looking for a move back towards the highs again...

Entry 5565 partial exit 5580 +15

Holding with target 5602

Stop 5561.....

If market comes back down after 14:36 taking out 5562 then it's going to be a flat close (no more trades)

next report tomorrow.....

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exit 5590 15:55 + 25

SPI Trading 25th February 2008 part 3


12:05

SPI range bound between 5588 and 5624....

Hard day to call on how the market will react around 5624 and whether it will breakout above the 3-day highs. (2nd half of the day)

Banks are rising off last week's lows and there is every reason for the market to continue upwards today.

Personally I still favour a rotation back down into 5562....and I finally got filled after re-testing my Sell zone...

Entry S 5625 partial exit 5610

Holding 1 lot with the expectation the market is rotating down into the 'Gap'....(stop @ 5628)

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Exit covered 5591 12:43+ 34

FOREX GBP/USD 25th February 2008

GBP supported around the Quarterly lows and the expectation is that price is rotating towards the March 50% level....

GBP is trading in a 3-day BUY cycle and above the Weekly 50% level....

With the best set-up to trade longs would be price coming down and re-testing the weekly 50% level before heading higher.

Note: higher a weekly open and expectaiton that price will rotate down for 2-days before heading higher from the 3rd using support levels...

Ideally I would like for the R110 spiral point to complete the move higher into 1.9732 on Monday before rotating back down into the Weekly 50% level......

Note: confirm a lower daily close before trading longs the next day....there is still a large gap towards the 3-day lows, so ideally a 2-day 'stall-reversal' pattern is what I would like to see before looking for a move upwards....

SPI Trading 25th February 2008 part 2

10:25

SPI opened above resistance @ 5588 and is now pushing upwards into the 3-day cycle @ 5624...

5624 is a resistance level, but a break above the level and price is moving into the first stage of a the rotation back towards the March 50% level....as per Weekly report

The early rise into 5624 put selling pressure on the market, but it looks like the previous 5-day 50% level is a vaild support zone....

44 points upwards and Risk is 5632 (spiral top)...but it's above the 3-day high...

Personally I would have sold around the 3-day high this morning with the expectation that price would move downwards into the 5562 (partial exit 22 points down), but I completely forgot about the 3-day high....

The expectation is that price still needs to move down into an R44 low along with timeframe support for the best longs trades....

No trades this morning at this stage......

SPI Trading 25th February 2008

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Please read the Australian Index Weekly report.....


Market opening below the Weekly 50% level, the 3-day 'Sell' cycle and currently being supported above the Quarterly lows.

For the move towards March 50% level to take place, the first step is a move up into the 3-day highs @ 5624 and the daily close above it.

Whether this happens today is another matter, because price is opening in the middle of the 5-day range and can go either way.

The past two Mondays have moved down, and with today's open and higher R44 spiral point, I would look for a down move of 44 points before any rise higher. I won't go long today on a higher open because of the range bar pattern.

But I don't have a high probability pattern today, other then using the previous 5-day 50% levels for any 'day-trading'

Upper Resistance:- 5580-88 & Lower support:- 5540...

Trying to gauge this morning's early price action and direction is hard because of where the market will open, but often around lunch time the market begins to consolidate around certain levels that can provide trades in the afternoon.

The important thing about today is:- Monday is the start of the new Week and begins a new 5-day pattern, with the view that price it will often try and rotate back towards the March 50% level which begins next week.

Australian Index Weekly Report Update....(23rd February )

US index Weekly Report Update.....

Please click the Weekly reports to the right

DOW E-mini 22nd February 08 part 4

Nice short covering rally on the close swinging upwards 114 points (primary range).....

Rotation back towards the 5-day 50% level.....

bang on support........

Full Weekly report later.....

DOW E-mini 22nd February 2008 part 3

US markets have continued down into support zones...... nice set-up and continuation of Weekly trend down....

Around these lows expectation that any short-covering 'could?' occur in the last 2 hours before Friday's close.....

These levels are exit zones on any short positions on the high probability short-set-up....

Longs around these lows isn't a high-probability set-up.....