DOW E-mini Trading 25th March 2008

DOW and E-mini Daily charts

Both US markets have stalled on Monday around the Weekly highs.

Since the start of this year, US markets haven't been able to have a daily close above them.

In the Weekly Report I mentioned that these are valid resistance levels, and if they are going the break higher then from the start of April would provide a much more robust pattern....

But any reversal back down is going to have to be confirmed with a break of support.

My expectation is that price is going to trade down into the Risk levels on Tuesday, but any further weakness will be confirmed with a break of support, and then the expectation of a rotation back into the Weekly 50% levels.

Otherwise Tuesday can end up being another consolidating day between the Channel highs and support.

Note:- High Risk 'short' trading above the Weekly channels, especially if it bounces off support and heads back toward the highs again.

SPI Trading 25th March 2008 part 7

SPI 15:47

SPI hasn't travelled too far this afternoon....

Exited last @ 5390 +17

Next trade tomorrow....

FOREX GBP/USD 25th March 2008 part 2

GBP/USD intra-day charts

As previous report suggested GBP has pushed up into the resistance levels of the 3-day highs.

Valid resistance will be confirmed with price moving back under 1.9886, and then heading down into the first support level @ 1.9808 (right chart)

Around support there is a usual pattern of a 43 pip to a double 43 pip UP move, and then it decides whether it wants to continue upwards or breaks support.

A break of support and price is heading down into the 3-day lows.

A bullish pattern is a bounce off support and it heads back towards the 3-day highs (probably continue higher) and back towards the Weekly 50% level.....

SPI Trading 25th March 2008 part 6

SPI 14:00

R44 spiral-top @ 5406

Entry short 5407 partial exit 5392 +15

leaving 1 lot open with target 44 points down - stops breakeven from entry

Coming into the last 100 minutes of trading, I'd be surprised to see the market rally into the close (breaking 5417), but it can happen

No more trades today...

SPI Trading 25th March 2008 part 5

SPI 12:32

SPI completed the 44 point range down move from open and now swinging back up into the highs, as it's trading outside the 5-day range.

On many occasions:- a day that is trading outside the 5-day range can often swing around in 44 point ranges most of the trading day until it's back inside the 5-day range tomorrow.

That's my view for the rest of the trading day....

More highly probable to get a larger down move tomorrow using the Weekly highs @ 5443 as a trend guide. (gap closure)

FOREX GBP/USD 25th March 2008

GBP Daily and intra-day chart

There were two plays at the start of this week: - the rotation back towards the Weekly 50% level or down into the Weekly lows, and that was defined by the RISK level on Monday.

A break above the level on Monday, and it's following the rotation towards the weekly 50% level, pushing UP towards the 3-day high and stalling.

On Tuesday the expectation is that it will push upwards into the 3-day highs once again, but with the 5-day 50% levels and 3-day highs acting as resistance zones, it's a bit too early to tell whether there is going to be any higher moves on Tuesday.

GBP intra-day charts

At this stage I don't have a high probability set-up, there is major resistance around the 3-day highs on Tuesday but it's an each way bet whether price reverses back down or not.

The reason why is, I think GBP/USD looks to be consolidating into the end of the Quarter and might just end up rotating around the 50% levels for the next few days.

SPI Trading 25th March 2008 part 4

SPI 10:22

Exit last 5375 + 35

No more trading for me until the afternoon, I'm going to sit it out and watch how things develop, and see whether the 5-day highs end up supporting the market today.

the stock report....

As per my exit zones on NAB @ 30.90, NAB hit a high @ 30.87 and I've covered @ 30.80 to be neutral on NAB trading stock:- just over 14% on the trade.

CBA is the only one left open on banking stocks:- exit was $43.90


However looking at how banks are retracing with WBC today, CBA could end up back around $48.00, therefore I have removed my exit zone of $43.90 for the time being, as it's the only trading stock remaining....


Note: WBC is around $25.00 today ,and looks like the higher drive upwards is pushing the April 50% levels much higher in the next Quarter. (April 50% levels confirmed on the close of the last day of March)

SPI Trading 25th March 2008 part 3

SPI 9:59

Partial exit 5384 +24

Next exit 5375 to be neutral positions. (stops 5418)

I will probably sit it out now, because of the expectation that the 5-day highs can play a supporting role for the rest of today.

SPI Trading 25th March 2008 part 2

SPI 9:55

SPI has opened at the higher end of the range (much higher than expected) and expectant resistance around 5417.

Weekly resistance highs 5443

The market has opened above the 5-day range highs 5352, so the expectation is that price will try and close the gap on the downside:- previous 5-day range @ 5369

However keep in mind that price is trading outside the 5-day break, therefore after the expectation of gap closure I don't see much room for any further weakness after the gap closure.

Short 5410....

SPI Trading 25th March 2008

Please read the Weekly report before proceeding....

SPI Daily and intra-day 5-day chart

As per Weekly report, strength in the markets this week is going to be defined by the Weekly 50% level.

Because the Australian Market has been closed whilst US markets have pushed higher, I don't know where the SPI will open today so I can't give a detailed view on probability set-ups in this report, other than using the 5-day levels as Risk zones.

No doubt the market will open higher, therefore it will be a higher Spiral-point, which favours looking to short-trade down into an R44 low..


Note: In the Stock Report for BHP last week I mentioned that I have a view that prices are moving into the lower Quarterly zones in April-June, however I was taking a higher position @ 31.60 this Quarter.

I'm removing that BUY position this quarter, and waiting until the end of the month to verify the Quarterly levels before taking positions in BHP.