Showing posts sorted by relevance for query S. Sort by date Show all posts
Showing posts sorted by relevance for query S. Sort by date Show all posts

SPI Trading 15th Feb 08 part 4 RECAP

13:05 RECAP

This morning I wanted to trade Longs on Open, because of the view that the market was heading back into the 5-day 50% level or a move upwards of 44 points..

If the market opened below 5583, then the best entry was for the market to move 22-points down before trading longs....

Now so far during the trading day the market has moved into a consolidation phase, but look at all the moves within the current day:- each move is based on precise 22 point moves.

Because I have a view of the market coming down into an R44 low before it can provide a better long trade, I've just simply use a 6 point reversal around the highs today.

Entry S 5570 exit 5555 (+15)
entry S 5572 exit 5558 (+14)
Entry S 5570 exit 5559 (+11)

Even the R22 lows are swinging around, and using the same R6 reversal I could have traded longs, but the view of moving down 44 points has stopped me taking longs...

At This stage I still don't know what the market will do this afternoon but the market on Friday is being heavily influenced by 22 points moves today.....
Posted by

SPI Trading 31st March 2008 part 3

SPI 10:53

SPI has pushed up into the R44 high and slightly more....

Around the R44 looking for some price action 'stalling' and at least a 22 point reversal would be ideal....

Entry S 5418 stopped 5425 -7

Entry S 5422 partial exit 5412 + 10 Stops 5424

Looking for exit @ 5408....

But it won't surprise me to see higher prices today....
Posted by

SPI Trading 4th March 2008 part 4

11:55

SPI is still consolidating below channel lows and moving up into an R44 spiral top....

R44 tops in down trending markets are ideal for re-entry points with the expectation that price is still under pressure below channel lows, and heading lower.

Entry S 5409 stopped 5416 -7

Entry S 5406 exit 5398 5379 +27

No more trading today until after %rate news is released
Posted by

SPI Trading 21st Feb 2008 part 4

11:25

SPI has reversed down from the highs and now consolidating around the Risk levels, with an each way bet on the direction for today.....

I haven't traded longs today because my entire set-up was based on Shorting, and with the failure of yesterday's Risk levels and a push below 5539 I was looking for further weakness down into the 5-day lows....

I use the R22 Reversal trade which matched the Risk level and it was looking good for a moment but it has now moved back above 5539....

Entry S 5539 Stopped 5545 -6


I'll give myself 1 more short today but not while it's above 5539 and if there is going to be any higher moves into the close then around 14:36 i'll keep an eye on price action for longs....
Posted by

SPI Trading 22nd February 2008 part 3

10.30

SPI bounced off the lows and is back into the 3-day lows and resistance @ 5515....

i'm surprised that it has moved back up into the 3-day lows, I thought it was just going to continue down....therefore there is a lot of support around these lower levels today (5493)

Looking at the R44 range it has to complete one way or the other...preferrably down... (upside 5524)

stopped on trailing @ 5509 (breakeven stop)

re-entered Shorts on double r22 high

S 5511 partial exit 5498 (+13)

holding 1 lot with the expectation that price is heading lower....

if stopped on this trade (stops @ 5516) no more trading today....

looking for an exit @ 5452....

Posted by

SPI Trading 3rd April 2008 part 5

SPI 10:45

22 point rejection pattern under 5585

Entry S 5584 (stopped 5592 -7 )

Back to square 1 today....

Extremely choppy for my liking today, as it looks like it wants to go higher today.

Bounce off 5572 and move back above 5585...

I don't want to trade longs today, so i'm focusing on 'shorts'....but it looks extremely choppy that it will end up costing me, if I try and short trade above 5585.

And down side looks supported....
Posted by

S&P (e-mini ) 21st October 2010 recap

Resistance 1184-1188

i'm not expecting a large trending down day into the daily lows.




S&P Weekly and daily range.

S&P pushed up into the daily highs and then reversed down into the daily 50% level.

Market remains trading below 1182 (major resistance), but at this stage it 's following the lesser patterns and making slightly higher highs within the daily range without providing a continuation down this week, as price remains above the weekly level @ 1166





Posted by

SPI Trading 19th February 2008 part 2

10:07

Resistance/sell zones 5654.....

Expectation gap closure of 44 point downward fade.....

Each way bet ( no probability)

hits gap closure @ 5613-5605 and swings back upwards taking out highs....

Bearish pattern is to continue down below 5605 breaking 5-day 50% levels (down trending day- random length)

Entry S 5654 and added 5647

Partial exit 5634

Next exit 5617

Holding 1 lot into close or 5570

Even though there can be support around an R44 low and rising upwards:- above 5-day 50% level, i'd rather see if banking stocks are going to take our market down further with this sell zone.....

Stops @ 5647 after exit @ 5617
Posted by

SPI Report



SPI Report 31st October

Last day of the trading month and the Dynamics shift with the
expectation that markets are moving higher in the next month.

We can see in the Weekly chart on the day session (below), the SPI
is hitting upper monthly resistance, this resistance will disappear at the
end of today's trading which will allow for prices to move higher towards 7000+ in the forward month/s


A higher Weekly open and expectation is that price will rotate down for 2-days:- Yesterday was the first and today is that 2nd day, and not helped by US markets now trading below their weekly 50% levels, and they have started the first day of rotation back down waiting for %rate ann.


SPI will come down and complete the range @ 6768, and bullish market will remain above the break of the 3-day high (6767) and head upwards.

A weak market (2nd day rotation), as another down day will have a random length, as pointed out yesterday, which can go down much further due to the large gap to the 3-day lows, to close out the trading month.
Posted by

SPI Trading 26th March 2008 part 2



SPI 10:11

SPI has pushed back up into the Spiral top and my view price is trying to complete the R44 down move in early trading.

Entry S 5407......

Note:- a lot of support early in the trading day with Banks still pushing up, so it could move higher into 5418 and into Weekly highs @ 5443
Posted by

SPI Futures Australian Atock Market 10th November 2011 Daily recap

opens today in relation to 4240 (Weekly 50% level).

My view is that it will push down towards 4210. (Thursday’s lows)

4210 is random support, which could  rise as high as 4254 (42 points)

SPI Weekly and Daily

 Early push down from the Weekly 50% level and into Thursday’s lows @ 4210.

That provided support and a late rally….(42 points +




Posted by

SPI Trading 27th March 2008

SPI Weekly Chart

The reversal upwards from March lows and the higher move on Tuesday has pushed price back into the 3-Weekly cycle highs @ 5464.

In 'Bear' Markets price won't spend much time above 5464, and the failure around that high yesterday is an important level and reference point.

5464 could end up being a major resistance level for many weeks, and that will only change once there is a 'friday' close above that level.


SPI Weekly charts 2002-2003

Above is the Weekly charts in the last down-trend in 2002-2003, and we can see how important the Weekly cycles are in defining the overall trend of the market....

And it was until 2003 (double Yearly low pattern) that the Weekly cycles defined the UP trend reversal.

If and when price closes above 5464 on a 'Friday', only then we can look at the market in a different light, but at this stage I still favour global markets are heading lower in each Quarterly timeframe.

SPI Daily and intra-day charts

In Yesterday' s report I mentioned I would like to see the SPI reverse back down and move lower into the April balance point next week for the next UP trend to eventuate.

If this is going to play out then price should be moving lower today, and the Risk level of the DOWN move is 5417.

Below 5417 and price is moving down, with a 'max' move back towards the 5-day 50% level.

However the previous Weekly 50% level @ 5335 could end up playing a 'support' role today.

Today is simply defined by 5417

Will open at a lower Spiral point @ 5418, and in UP trends this often favours an UP move, therefore whilst price is trading above 5417 the expectation is price is moving up 44 points again.

Chart reading:- I favour a down move but it's hard to 'short' trade' a lower spiral point, so I'll be looking for any 22 point rejection patterns below 5417 and 5443 (Weekly tops) .
Posted by

SPI Trading 15th Feb 08 part 5

14:33

SPI swinging around in 22 point moves, with an expectant down move into an R44 low would be my next long trade, but it's high risk especially coming down on Friday whilst it's trading below the 5-day 50% level.

entry S 5574 Exit 5562 +12

In hindsight:- trading longs around the R22 Spiral bottoms were good trades because price was actually trading above the R44 high @ 5555 forming a support zone....

Note:- If market bounces off these R22 lows again above 5555, I won't short-trade R22 tops again this afternoon because I think the market will move higher, as buying support comes in again around 14:36, which often pushes the market UP.......
Posted by

FOREX GBP/USD 21st Jan 2008

GBP trend remains down defined the Weekly 50% level....any further weakness this weak and expectation price heading down towards the Weekly lows and then the January lows....

The Failure of the Weekly 50% level and the push down on Friday suggests a lower low this week, with the intraday trends defined the the 5-day 50% level and the channel lows....

Whilst trading below Sunday's lows (1.9563) expectation is price heading down into Monday's lows...

I have no probability trades on Monday;- whether Monday's lows support price or it breaks lower and heads down towards the Weekly lows...

" trading longs off support look to partial exit around 32-43 pips off the swing lows, with stops just below the lows, and hold......do not trade longs below the 5-day 50% level and the Spiral low"

My last post on Friday, price was being supported by the 5-day 50% level, that day completed 3x32 pip ranges before the 43 pip high formed and sold off breaking the 5-day 50% level, and heading down towards the Friday lows...

There was another possible trade around the same R43 pip highs later, as it was heading down towards Friday's lows.

Because I'm a Sydney Based trader, and the majority of readers are Australian based traders, all we can do is trade our timeframe, or GMT timeframe, and try and manage positions using support and partial exits around certain levels, and run tight stops.

The trade is either going to continue in our direction, or reverse during the US session, when most of us are asleep. Whilst other O/S traders can trade those moves using the same information in the reports.

Posted by

SPI Trading 25th February 2008 part 3


12:05

SPI range bound between 5588 and 5624....

Hard day to call on how the market will react around 5624 and whether it will breakout above the 3-day highs. (2nd half of the day)

Banks are rising off last week's lows and there is every reason for the market to continue upwards today.

Personally I still favour a rotation back down into 5562....and I finally got filled after re-testing my Sell zone...

Entry S 5625 partial exit 5610

Holding 1 lot with the expectation the market is rotating down into the 'Gap'....(stop @ 5628)

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Exit covered 5591 12:43+ 34
Posted by

SPI Trading 22nd February 2008 part 2

10:08....

the perfect entry:- 22 upwards reversal under the 3-day lows @ 5515...

There is a lot of support around 5493 (Quarterly lows) so it isn't a certainty that there is going to be continue weakness today....

Entry S 5511 added 5509

Partial Exit 5493

Next exit 5482

and then holding 1 lot with breakeven stops from entry with the expectation that 5476 is going the break and head lower ...
Posted by

DOW Daily 2nd March 2009 recap

"US markets pushing down into the Weekly and March lows.

Monday's Yellow levels in both Markets.

Ideally the Yellow support levels would be view for a rotation upwards, even though there is a larger trend trying to push the markets down into March lows"

Premium Report


DOW Weekly and 5-day pattern

US markets moved down into Monday support level but failed to move higher than the previous day's range.

A break of Support on Monday and the DOW along with most global markets have pushed down towards the March lows, as per Weekly Report

DOW S&P Monthly

US markets moving down into March Lows, which are starting to align with the 2009 Yearly lows


http://usindexweekly.blogspot.com/2009/02/dow-s-weekly-28th-february-2009.html

Begin to look for some support coming into the market this week with some confirming patterns (5-day 50% level cross over).

Any upside and February lows (blue channels) would be seen as resistance, with a possibility that a swing towards the March 50% level could take place, but that won't happen until nearing the end of this month.



Note:- Currently price action is in a Thrust pattern moving from
the 50% levels towards the extremes over Time, as it follows the Primary Trend and cycles towards the lows.

If March lows can't hold and there is another Crash pattern, as was the case in January and September 2008:- then those new lows in the 2nd quarter imo finally mark the end of this down move for 2009.







  • Daily Trading Set-ups & Analysis


  • Index Futures SPI, DOW S&P, & Forex


  • Subscribe to the Trader Premium


  • http://www.datafeeds.com.au/premiumtrader.html



    • Posted by

    S&P (e-mini) DOW 13th August 2008 Recap

    S&P Weekly and Daily Charts


    Often when markets breakout of the monthly channels they often come back and re-test the breakout and then continue with the overall trend.

    This is what's been happening in the US markets at the start of August, a re-test of the June breakout.

    There is major resistance around these upper levels, based on the June Breakout and the Monthly 50% levels.

    I also pointed out in the Weekly report, that for any UP trend to continue price would come back and re-test the Weekly 50% level, before any new UP trend could continue.

    And this is what's happened this week (right chart)

    http://usindexweekly.blogspot.com/2008/08/dow-s-weekly-report-9th-august-2008.html


    Overall I'm factoring in another wave down this Quarter to bottom out the market in 2008, but that's going to depend how US markets react to this Weekly 50% level and this Friday's close....

    A bullish trend should bounce off the Weekly 50% level and continue higher into Friday confirming the break above the 50% levels.

    A failure to close out on Friday, and as per Weekly report, I would begin to look for continuation down probably in the last Week of this month.
    Posted by

    SPI Trading 21st February 2008 part 2



    10:05

    SPI hit resistance and has moved up into and R44 high.....

    Whilst above 5539 shorting is open to risk....

    But a 44 point reversal back under 5539 and this is still part of my morning report analysis....and further weakness down.

    It would need to 'hook' back under 5539 (44 point reversal) and become resistance.... otherwise expected further gains (not trading longs atm)....

    Entry S 5538 (stopped @ 5542) -4

    R44 spiral top and I can't go long at the moment:- but 5539 could end up being a support zone today with further upside moves........
    Posted by
    Subscribe to: Comments (Atom)