SPI Trading 26th March 2008 part 7

SPI 15:32

SPI has hit 5443 and stalled, and hopefully this time it gets some follow through on the downside.

Entry 5441 partial exit 5431 +10 Stops 5445

Exit target 5407

Note: Interesting that out of the 4 banks CBA is the only 1 that is green today.

Hopefully CBA hit the exit target tomorrow or the day after.

SPI Trading 26th March 2008 part 6

SPI 15:15

SPI is pushing up into close and moving towards the Weekly highs @ 5443.....

However, there hasn't been a rise upwards from a R44 spiral low for an advanced UP move, so I would still expect a down move into a 44 point low, whether that happens late this afternoon or tomorrow is another matter.

SPI Trading 26th March 2008 part 5

SPI 12:53

Eventually SPI is making it's way down into an R44 low @ 5374

My Exit zone was 5380 but I've jumped the gun and exited @ 5384 + 33

rest of the day has a random outcome, but it could continue lower into the close, as per morning report with the reversal down from 5418 today.

Note:- With 1 week remaining until the start of April, my view is for the markets to come down and test the April Balance point (as shown in the Daily chart) before any further UP move can eventuate in the next Quarter.

Next SPI report @ 15:20

SPI Trading 26th March 2008 part 4

SPI 11 :38

We have our 2nd spiral-point set-up this morning @ 5418 and hopefully we get more follow through on the downside than earlier this morning.

I've been so accustomed to having the downside 44 point ranges completing quickly for the past 3-months, but in UP trending markets volatility begins to drop, so I want to be focusing on taking out my first position earlier than normal...

Trailing stopped @ 5411 -4 from previous trade.

Entry Shorts 5417 partial exit 5397 +10 trailing stops 5421

Exit to be neutral @ 5380

Once again my view is a completion of 44 points to the downside.

Because this is the 2nd 'play' as per morning report, I'm not looking to trade longs today around 44 point lows because of the potential of a further down move. Once out of the trade I won't be trading again today.

A continuation upwards and price is heading towards 5443

FOREX GBP/USD 26th March 2008

GBP/USD daily and intra-day chart

2-day UP move has resulted in the second day breaking the 3-day highs and continuing upwards towards the next 3-day highs in Wednesday.

Once again there is a 'two-play' scenario:- A continuation upwards into Wednesday highs (resistance)

Or a move down early on Wednesday back into the 3-day breakout to re-test the breakout level and then continue higher into Wednesday's highs on Thursday....

Risk levels Shown above:- 2.0030

Above 2.0030 and it's pushing upwards into Wednesday...

Below 2.0030 and trend bias is to head down into 1.9936

SPI Trading 26th March 2008 part 3

SPI 10: 28

Partial exit 5397 + 10 stops 5411....

Target 44 points down....

Next Exit @ 5474 to be neutral positions on shorts....

Random expectation after 44 point down move, whether it swing upwards from a 'spiral-low' and heads back towards 5443 and the Weekly highs, as per Morning report

SPI Trading 26th March 2008 part 2

SPI 10:11

SPI has pushed back up into the Spiral top and my view price is trying to complete the R44 down move in early trading.

Entry S 5407......

Note:- a lot of support early in the trading day with Banks still pushing up, so it could move higher into 5418 and into Weekly highs @ 5443

SPI Trading 26th March 2008

SPI Daily and intra-day charts

Yesterday opened above the 5-day highs and the expectation was that price was more than likely going to rotate around in 44 point ranges.

Today will move back inside the 5-day range so there will probably be much more of a 'range' day than yesterday.

However we still need the 44 point range from yesterday to complete before we move into the 5-day range for today.

Wednesday:-

Price is coming down from the higher Spiral point so the expectation is that price is going to move down into an R44 low before the market decides on the direction of the day.

So I want to be focusing on shorting the market early into an R44 low from a higher spiral point @ 5406.

But, at the same time price could actually move up into a 2nd higher Spiral point around 5418 before it comes down into an R44 low.

Basically I have two views on today......

If price comes down from yesterday's spiral point @ 5406 there is probably more chance of a price moving higher towards the Weekly highs @ 5443 (resistance)

If Price pushes down from a 2nd Spiral point @ 5418 then I would favour a move back down into yesterday's 5-day level @ 5352.

Therefore I'm focusing on looking to 'short-trade' down into an R44 low, after that I don't have an overall view for the rest of the day other than using the previous 5-day levels as RISK levels.

Note: I won't be looking to trade Longs if price is trading below 5352 because of the view the market is moving back into the 5-day 50% level.

And there is a possibility of moving higher today into 5443 and the Weekly high range.

DOW E-mini 25th March 2008 part 2

DOW E-mini intra-day

US markets are trading between the upper Weekly channel highs and the Daily support levels with just over 1 hour to go before the day ends.

Wednesday's support levels have moved up, which should provide traders with an early indication of this week's first down day if prices are trading below those levels tomorrow.

FOREX GBP/USD 25th March 2008 part 3

GBP/USD Daily and and intra-day charts

GBP/USD has completed the 2-day reversal pattern back into the Weekly 50% level.

The rest of the trading day has a random outcome, as price can continue higher into the next day as it chases the new 3-day highs on Wednesday.

At this begining of the trading week I had two views on the direction, and this rotation back into the Weekly 50% level was the first (confirmed with the break of the 3-day highs), and I'll need to see how the trading day closes to get a better view on Wednesday's trading.