DOW E-mini 1st April 2008

DOW Emini Daily charts

Primary trend (Yearly) Bearish
Secondary Trend (quarterly) Bearish
Intermediate Trend (Monthly) Bearish

Shorter Trends (Weekly Bullish)

Yesterday came down into the Weekly 50% level and found buying support.

Today the Monthly balance point is important because this will also need to have support and push higher into the close, otherwise a break of the Weekly .618 and the markets are heading back down.

Note: because of the Weekly timeframe, i'm looking for a 5-day sideways pattern before the next 'thrust' away from the central 50% levels.

Intra-day 5-day

Markets are trading below the 5-day 50% level.

Again there is no major high probability pattern today other than trading on the side of the Risk-Support levels.

Daily direction is an each way bet, with the higher timeframe support levels important.

My ideal pattern for a higher move is: - having a 'down' day, with a Daily 'hook' back inside the Weekly 50% level to trade upwards the following day using the Weekly 50% level as support.

At this stage I can't see Tuesday being other than being another day like yesterday, as part of a 5-day consolidating pattern for short-term traders.

SPI Trading 1st April 2008 part 6

14:55

SPI played the 'Hook' R44 back above the 5-day 50% level and is heading upwards into another R44 high @ 5431.

Can the market reverse down from that Spiral top???

It can reverse some points, but whether it's going to complete a full 44 point reversal is hard to image today.

For the past 2 hours it's remained at my Sell-zone this morning 5419-22 but I haven't traded any shorts around these highs just 'yet' since my last trade.

MY earlier short was stopped out for -8 points, the only sad part was that I had a partial exit @ 10 points (5486) but price only went as far as 5487 before taking out my stops...

All of a sudden what looked like heading down towards the 5-day lows earlier today, now looks to be heading towards the 5-day highs.

I'll take 1 more short today, but I would like to see the Spiral top hit and then use a 'reversal' bar to enter the trade, than just using the 'point' as an entry.

I have a sneaky expectation today's hook pattern doesn't look like it's going to show much weakness this afternoon.

SPI Trading 1st April 2008 part 5

SPI 12:21

SPI has moved up into the R44 spiral Top and the 5-day 50% level...

Because of the view price is moving down towards the Weekly 50% level.

Re-entered Shorts average price 5396 Stops 5404..

FOREX GBP/USD 1st April 2008

GBP/USD Weekly and Daily charts

The start of the new Quarter and Trading month, and Yesterday's trading has pushed the April 50% level down to 1.9885.

Whilst price is below this level, price pushing down into the Weekly .618 lows @ 1.9694

Above 1.9885 and it's moving back towards the Weekly 50% level.

At this stage Price is trading below every timeframe 50% level

Note:- the Weekly timeframe still remains trading in the previous Quarter and won't be confirmed until the end of this week.

GBP intra-day

It looks like GBP is pusing down into the 3-day lows again on Tuesday.

An UP move will obviously rise up from the April 50% levels, but intra-day trend is going to be defined by the RISK level on any higher moves, whilst the support levels are only factoring 43 pips moves.

So around 1.9756 expectation support will play out and rise 1-2 43 pips, but above the risk level will confirm that price is moving back up into the Weekly 50% level.

SPI Trading 1st April 2008 part 4

SPI 11:15

SPI daily heading down towards the April Balance points, along with the Weekly 50% level.

Today's R44 reversal changed the short-term trend below the 5-day 50% level (5395) the first time in 6 days.

Around the 5-day lows will be an important support zone on Tuesday, and again on Wednesday....

This will be based on a Lower Daily close (Tuesday), followed by a lower Daily open rising upwards from tomorrow.

Next SPI report 15:30

SPI Trading 1st April 2008 part 3

SPI 10:58

SPI has continued down into yesterday's lows, and hopefully it can rise upwards from these lows using the channels...

But with the price action today and the R44 reversal, price is all of a sudden below the 5-day low @ 5395, which suggests further weakness, and could end up down into the 5-day lows

At this stage price does favour a rotation back down further, and any longs around here is only viewed as a short term long trade, back up into 5395 and exit.

Entry 5378 Stopped 5372 -6

Note:- price could be heading down to the 5-day lows, which aligns with the Weekly 50% levels, as this is has been my view since last week.

SPI Trading 1st April 2008 part 2

SPI 10:10

SPI opened much higher than expected, but still looking for a rotation back down from a higher open.

Short entry 5432

Partial exit 5412 +20

Holding into R44 low to exit trade.

I mentioned this morning about trading longs from an R44 low, at this stage I'm not interested in trading the Longs, because of the potential of price come down into the Weekly 50% level.

take the money and run.... Exit @ 5398 + 34


Large Gap to the Weekly 50% level, which could rotate back down to

The Stock Report:-

BHP 1st April 2008...

http://aussie-stocks.blogspot.com/search?q=BHP


SPI Report 1st April 2008

Read Below....

SPI Trading 1st April 2008

SPI Weekly and Daily charts.

Start of a new Month and Quarterly timeframe, and there are conflicting trends in the market.

The overall Primary and Secondary (Yearly/Quarterly) trends are down, along with the Monthly, whilst the Shorter trends are UP:- Above the Weekly and 5-day 50% levels.

With the start of the new timeframes as of the 1st of April, the expectation is that if it's going to follow the shorter trends then the market will move up towards 5521.

If it's going to follow the bigger trends, then price will move down into the April balance point and then continue down.

Keep in mind that all new trends begin a 'thrust' from the central points outwards, and we are currently trading near the central points, therefore I would like to see price come down and test the Weekly 50% level and April balance point to get a clear picture on the direction of the trend.

Note: The Weekly timeframe is still 'stuck' inside the last Quarterly timeframe, as it began in March, and won't match until the end of this week.

Therefore it won't surprise me to see this week continue in a 5-day sideways consolidating pattern before new any trend or thrust begins from next week.


SPI intra-day

Yesterday's analysis was about the probability of price coming down into the April balance point this week, but not necessarily on Monday because of the lower Spiral Point open.

I also modelled that Tuesday might provide a more robust pattern to trade down.

Today we have a higher Spiral-point, and this set-up provides a more robust pattern of 'short'-trading down.

Therefore:- I'm looking to use the higher Spiral point to short trade down around 5419-22 in early trading.

In conclusion:- Yes I'm looking for price to come back into the Weekly 50% levels and April Balance Point this week, however because of the Weekly timeframe i'm also looking for a 5-day sideways pattern and consolidation.

If that's the case then this Week is about trading the 44 point Spiral points....

Going Long around the lows and Short-trading the highs, and taking points using those Spiral points as Risk plays.

Sure there will be times when they fail and I'll be stopped out, but if this Week plays out a consolidating 5-day pattern, then the gains using the R44 Spiral points should outweigh the losses.

DOW E-mini 31st March 2008 part 3

US markets rise up from the Weekly 50% levels, and swing back towards the 5-day 50% levels to close out the trading Quarter...

Full Report tomorrow