S&P (e-mini ) 23 Dec 09 recap

"At this stage there isn't any pattern to confirm more gains this week.

Therefore the 5-day highs are seen as resistance levels....

Whilst the Yellow levels are seen a random support"

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S&P Weekly and 5-day pattern

Consolidating trading day within the 5-day pattern.




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SPI Daily 23 December 2009 recap

"The expectation was for the first 2-days to move higher and now the 3rd day is above the monthly 50% levels, which could result this week continuing towards the Weekly highs @ 4806 and more

The last R42 range from Tuesday needs to complete and if it continues higher then that level is 4724.

Above 4724 and the market is heading higher"




SPI Monthly and 5-day pattern.


As per Weekly report:- A 2-day UP move to begin the week and if above 4690 there is an expectation that the Weekly timeframe should continue towards 4806, and probably close above it.

However, there is a shorten week because of the Christmas holidays and that higher Weekly close might not eventuate.

And any trend is dependant on US markets following the same price action.






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S&P (e-mini ) 22nd Dec 09 recap

S&P Weekly and 5-day pattern

Tuesday completes the 2nd day up move to begin the week...

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SPI Daily 22nd December 2009 recap

"5-day level @ 4648:- support.

Tuesday’s highs match December 50% levels

Tuesday is part of the 2nd day up move:- 42 points up @ 4689"

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SPI Monthly and 5-day pattern


As per Weekly report, last Friday’s price action and expectation that the SPI would begin this week with a bias of moving higher in the first 2-days.

Today was part of the 2nd day up move, but price is still trading around the December 50% levels and Tuesday’s high.

Eventually the market will have to move out of the current range and there is also an expectation that US markets still have 1 more UP day.

The 3-year 50% level @ 4617 (Yellow) has been supporting the SPI for a number of weeks now, and this dynamically jumps up in 2010 to around 4900

Looking at the market dynamic for 2010, I would look for a range bound market between those two yearly level in 2010. (Red and Yellow)

That means that if the SPI continues to consolidate for the rest of this month, then there is potential continuation upwards in the first quarter of 2010, however I’m still looking for the market to rotate back down into the lower Yearly level(red) in 2010, but it doesn't look like happening in December.








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S&P (e-mini ) 21st Dec 09 recap

"With Friday’s 5-day low support and higher daily close, I would look for US markets to begin this week with a 2-day UP move.

1100 trend guide"



S&P Weekly and 5-day pattern.

Friday’s pattern in the S&P help set-up Monday as being the first UP day, and hopefully by Wednesday the S&P will finally complete the 4th Quarter targets @ 1126.






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SPI Daily 21 December 2009 recap



SPI Monthly and 5-day pattern


SPI trading below the Monthly 50% level, but as pointed out in the weekly report, I had an expectation that there was a possibility that the first 2-days could be UP.

Above the 5-day filter channel @ 4654, with the expectation that the market would find support and try and continue higher towards Monday’s highs…

Early support but the close below 4664 broke the critical level today, pushing the SPI lower into the close.

At this stage the market remains trading below the higher timeframe 50% levels with an expectation of a larger trend reversal, and if there is going any higher moves this week, it will have to be on the back of US markets going higher.

And it’s not a forgone conclusion, as the DOW has a lower Weekly close below the Weekly 50% levels, which can often push the market lower on Monday.



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    Index Futures & Stock Reports 19 Dec 09

    Weekly Index & Forex Reports out now...

    Australian Index (SPI) Futures

    http://austindex.blogspot.com/


    DOW and S&P Index Futures

    http://usindexweekly.blogspot.com/

    EUR/USD, AUD/USD

    http://www.forexspread.blogspot.com/


    OIL Futures:- OIL BOIL

    http://www.oilboil.blogspot.com/



    Note: Weekly BHP, RIO, and Banking Report Update



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    DOW Futures Daily 18th Dec 2009 recap

    "There is a 5-day low breakout on Thursday and this normally favours a continuation down on Friday (below Weekly 50% levels)

    I favour 50% level resistance & down but remaining inside the 5-day range on Friday"

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    DOW Weekly and 5-day pattern


    Thursday’s reversal pattern and breakout of the 5-day range, resulted in a high probability rejection pattern on Friday using the 50% levels & down into the lows.

    At this stage the trend next week is going to be defined by the Weekly 50% levels.







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    SPI Daily 18th December 2009 recap

    "Expected weakness in US markets should hopefully provide the next leg down in the SPI.

    For the next leg down to occur price needs to be breaking out of the 5-day lows (4612), however based on the sycom close that hasn’t been verified.

    Therefore these lows could end up random support, or optimised to my view of the overall market and trend:- a breakout and next leg downward"

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    SPI monthly and 5-day pattern

    I’ve been bearish on the market because price has been trading below the December 50% level @ 4690, and last night’s price action in the S&P 500 favoured further weakness in the SPI…

    The breakout of the 5-day lows @ 4612 started early, and I expected a continuation of the downward trend but it resulted in a fake break.

    I was hoping the breakout would continue down, however the reversal pattern back above 4612 provided further 5-day pattern rotations which has been the norm for a number of weeks now.

    A continuation of the short-term reversal pattern in the S&P 500 isn’t set in stone on Friday, if the market begins trading back above the 50% levels.








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    S&P (e-mini ) 17th Dec 09 recap

    "S&P 500 has been supported above the 50% levels for the past 3-days but not rising, and the contraction of the 5-day range is going to lead to a breakout. If Thursday opens below the 5-day 50% level I think the breakout will be down.

    At this stage I’m not factoring in the 5-day lows & Weekly 50% level as support, as I feel that Thursday will probably breakout"

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    S&P Weekly and 5-day pattern

    Since last week’s HOOK pattern back above the Weekly 50% level I expected a move towards the Monthly highs within the first 3 days.

    I didn’t have a bearish set-up on the S&P in the short-term as price wasn’t trading near resistance levels and price was above 50% levels, therefore the bias was to continue higher.

    However, that bearish pattern appeared at midnight US time with Wednesday's close and Thursday's open pre-empting the change of the trend and break of short-term support levels @ 1098.

    I've seen these patterns before:- 2-days consolidation around the support levels and Wednesday moves higher but then drifts down and Thursday opens below the 5-day 50% level.

    Normally the market will remain below the 5-day 50% level over the first 4 hours, (after midnight NY) and then begin to move lower.

    After 3-days of not going anywhere, when the market should have continued higher on Wednesday, I could not be bullish when Thursday started the day below the 5-day 50% levels

    Now there's a breakout of the 5-day low on Thursday, which should continue down on Friday and maybe push down into the 3-week lows December 50% levels by Monday.

    Whilst price is below 1098, the bias is to continue down over the next 2-days, I just would have preferred a larger trending day on Thursday towards 1083.





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